The rise of the Dragon-Bear

If you read some of my previous Letters, you remember that I wrote several times about the potential disruptive effect of a Russia-Chinese partnership. The events of 2014 and the very aggressive position of the West against Russia, on all aspects of its politics and not only Ukraine, has accelerated the strategic negotiations between the two countries, at a speed that I could not have anticipated one year ago. The Saker ( published today a long paper written by an expert on Chinese economy and politics (his code name is Larchmonter 445), thus giving us a view from the other side of the Amur river. It considers that the partnership is real and deep, using the analogy of the Double-Helix, like two DNA helix uniting to create a stronger, almost invincible being. The link is below, and I can send you a copy by mail if you have problems to download. The paper is extremely well documented and goes into an unprecedented detailed analysis of the critical areas of cooperation that have been agreed upon or are being negotiated right now between the two countries. They embrace all aspects of the life of each country and give a better understanding of the future. It is also interesting for business, giving hints of where money shall be made available for development and what shall be the impact on the Russian industry. It also confirms the recent declaration made by China leaders, providing full support to Russia in the financial war that was started with the sanctions and extended with the attack against the ruble. Practically it means that the only really biting element in those sanctions – the lack of refinancing for Russian corporations – becomes ineffective. Those corporations are now able to get the financing they need from China, making them more independent from the Western financial markets, and this is only the begining. The paper is long but worth the time, and hopefully versions in other languages shall be made available. Some aspects may be over optimistic, and the guess about North Korean may be risky, but all is coherent and can be confirmed from the news we regularly get from Moscow and Beijing. Charles de Gaulle wanted to build a powerful, independent Europe from Britany to the Urals, but today’s miserably inspirited EU leaders have definitely killed that dream. Instead we see the birth of a powerful and independent Eurasia, from St Petersburg to Hong-Kong. Long life to the Dragon-Bear!

Enjoy the end of 2014.. may be not such a bad year indeed!